Saturday, May 21, 2011

Cloud Computing

This blog is dedicated to those seekers with a passion to actually read and learn about those technologies that will bring the future of the Web to fruition and radically alter our lives.

So let's start with 4 simple things that will radically alter our world by 2015:

> data centers that morph into cloud computing centers;

> access networks that add more mobility and speed;

> consumers and “prosumers” in the industrialized world who are going from an average 2 to 6 devices that access the Net daily; and

> applications that meet needs we haven't thought of and run on the device we have handy at the moment.

The news in cloud computing is not only that it is growing spectacularly (> 40% per year through 2015). The real story is that 85% of the total costs of running data centers are dropping annually as we add users to the cloud. This creates what the economists call “economies of scale”, where the company that grows the fastest gets the lowest costs and the greatest control over setting pricing. Economies of scale in the auto industry over the last century brought huge drops in prices for users, and better lives for us all.

The news on the access network front is similar: more & faster ways to get to the Net from wherever we are. Mobility is the key, as well as the ability to get to an appropriate screen for the app we want to use – no movies or books on my iPhone – no phone calls on my HDTV. As choice rises in our access networks, prices for access will drop.

The news on devices is similar. Today my HDTV, car, phone, tablet, laptop, desktop, and alarm system all give me easy access to the Net via a browser. Within the next year, more devices will join this parade. The arrival of screens with browsers and Net access augurs a wider connectedness than we have ever experienced. It also causes huge drops in prices for consumers.

The news on apps just adds to this fast forward lurch. Literally a half million apps run on either an iPhone or Android phone today. But most apps only run on one screen, are optimized for only one operating system, and are not really meant to be shared. This all changes as we move to better, standards-based browsers and the HTML5 suite (HTML5, CSS3, and Javascript). In the next year, the explosion of cross-device gaming running on Facebook and other exciting new applications, such as and , will dramatically raise the bar for most websites.

And, finally, the way forward… The 3-D Metaverse was captured elegantly in a 23 pager written collaboratively in 2006 ( ). The place we will begin to inhabit starting around 2015… read and learn and comment and criticize.

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